By Graziano Messana
The surprising final result of the first round of the Brazilian presidential elections ended with almost 50 million votes collected by Jair Bolsonaro. If we pause for a moment to observe the only political profile of Bolsonaro, captain of the army on leave and deputy from 1991, certainly we could open some chapters that show imprudence and inconsistency both in his public statements and in the way in the past exercised his right to vote against some important reforms. But to the extent that the exercise of democracy is not called into question, Bolsonaro is seen as a necessary turning point.
The stock has received with great euphoria the outcome of this first stage of the elections registering a + 4% and the historical record of exchanges, which totaled 24.8 billion reais. The interest rate curve has recorded an immediate containment and this will more easily guarantee an economic shift if it does not change the scenario again. The first objective conclusion is therefore that the feeling of the investiture is not of concern, but of trust. Quite than to imagine again the power to the challenger’s PT.
to the second scrutiny Fernando Haddad, political son of the former president Lula, they are supporting Bolsonaro, not so much as a candidate, but as a movement, since his party has grown enormously in a short time. The second, more than a conclusion, is a sensation.
The companies have been very cautious if not immobilized in recent months, no one has made investments or decided to hire (remembering that the crisis left 13 million unemployed). Already seen, in the first statements made by hot Brazilian entrepreneurs or executives, comforting words and great encouragement for a faster recovery. But who will govern the economic and financial (remembering that since 1989 the candidates who have won the first round have become presidents then) are names that a lot like the market and investors. Very much like the economic right-wing brigade of Bolsonaro, Paolo Guedes, economist and possible finance minister, who has a consensus in view of his high skills in administration and economics (PhD in Chicago). The other names, simply, no are present within the liberal social party but Guedes has already announced the recruitment on the market explaining the names that could make up the control room. Names ranging from presidents of well-known investment banks to renowned economists who take on loads of responsibility in private secrecy.
Guedes also highly esteems the work of the current Central Bank president, Ilan Goldfajn, for which he will either reconfirm or enter a figure who will continue the work in a fairly continuous direction. From a point of view of interest towards Brazil, it has seen several acquisitions in recent months by foreign groups that see the country as a medium-long term opportunity. Analyzing data on foreign investment flows, Brazil rose to fourth place in the world ranking as attractiveness. Funds such as BlackRock have already announced that Brazilian assets will be valued quickly after the elections so that various transactions are accelerating in these groups. In this sense also the position of Bank of America, which has already changed the profile of neutral to overweight. Italian companies have taken important positions, to name just a few from the recent acquisition made by ENEL and the operation of Buzzi Unice, which in September invested 150 million euros, revealing 50% of the Brennand group (cement division).